TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Intel 4Q21: Our Capex Is More Valuable than TSMC’s

Tower Semiconductor (TSME.US): To Be Merged by Intel- A Fastest Way, but a Patience Test, Too.

Intel: Changing Names Doesn’t Accelerate a Roadmap

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Intel Corp

Intel 3Q21: Delusions of a Madman