Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The current pandemic looks likely to shift the space for what is possible and desirable in economic policy, creating fears that low inflation may become a casualty of the shift in priorities.</li>
<li>For a wage-price spiral to take hold, inflation targets would need to be seriously compromised, and the calmer pattern of industrial relations established in recent decades would have to change. </li>
<li>In the near term, headline pay growth data across Europe are exaggerated by base effects that coincide with the re-opening from lockdown. Pay settlements aren’t corroborating the excess reflation narrative.</li>
</ul>


The current pandemic looks likely to shift the space for what is possible and desirable in economic policy, creating fears that low inflation may become a casualty of the shift in priorities.
For a wage-price spiral to take hold, inflation targets would need to be seriously compromised, and the calmer pattern of industrial relations established in recent decades would have to change. 
In the near term, headline pay growth data across Europe are exaggerated by base effects that coincide with the re-opening from lockdown. Pay settlements aren’t corroborating the excess reflation narrative.


Inflation: Waiting for a 70s Revival