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Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Manufactured Improvement: IndusInd Bank (IIB.IB) [IndusInd] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 6.5 bn, improving INR 1.9 bn (40.5%) linked quarter. Like most other banks in India, IndusInd cut its loan loss provision INR 2.9 bn or 13.0% on a linked quarter basis – driving FY2Q21 bottom-line – a bizarre move given the accelerated levels of NPL creation which no doubt will be reversed going forward; and*Credit Weaker, Not Better: You can dress IndusInd up and put as much make-up on as you like but at the end of the day – credit is ugly. NCOs of INR 18.4 bn amount to 3.72% on an annualized basis, while net new NPLs are increasing at a 117.5%. From our vantage point, we find that IndusInd’s reserve needs to be more than tripled with a shortfall of INR 75.7 bn – representing nine quarters of pre-tax results if you believe the FY 2Q21 result wasn’t manufactured – or 17.0% of market cap. This is a problem, as IndusInd’s CET 1 at 14.5% is substantially still lower than the CET 1 ratio of the large private banks (18% on an average).

*Manufactured Improvement: IndusInd Bank (IIB.IB) [IndusInd] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 6.5 bn, improving INR 1.9 bn (40.5%) linked quarter. Like most other banks in India, IndusInd cut its loan loss provision INR 2.9 bn or 13.0% on a linked quarter basis – driving FY2Q21 bottom-line – a bizarre move given the accelerated levels of NPL creation which no doubt will be reversed going forward; and*Credit Weaker, Not Better: You can dress IndusInd up and put as much make-up on as you like but at the end of the day – credit is ugly. NCOs of INR 18.4 bn amount to 3.72% on an annualized basis, while net new NPLs are increasing at a 117.5%. From our vantage point, we find that IndusInd’s reserve needs to be more than tripled with a shortfall of INR 75.7 bn – representing nine quarters of pre-tax results if you believe the FY 2Q21 result wasn’t manufactured – or 17.0% of market cap. This is a problem, as IndusInd’s CET 1 at 14.5% is substantially still lower than the CET 1 ratio of the large private banks (18% on an average).

IndusInd Bank – Now Dealing With Negative Operating Jaws

Indusind Bank

IndusInd Bank – Now Dealing With Negative Operating Jaws