Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Politics: A flurry of meetings and conferences between political elites has yielded no clarity about tickets or running mates.  President Joko Widodo remains undecided about his vice‑presidential nominee and may need three more weeks.  This hampers planning for other parties (Page 2).  Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto met Partai Demokrat figures last week to discuss a possible ticket with Maj (ret) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (‘AHY’), but afterwards Partai Demokrat Chair Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made clear that the party will wait to observe Widodo’s choice before making its own move (p. 3).  Officials from National Awakening Party (PKB) registered adamant opposition to the potential selection of Mahfud Mahmodin for VP (p. 4).  Another judicial appeal – this time by Hary Tanoesoedibjo’s Perindo – attempts to weaken term limits in the Election Law to allow Jusuf Kalla to stand for a third term as VP.  But Constitutional Court justices, preoccupied by regional‑head election disputes, will almost certainly lack time to hear Perindo’s suit before the 10 August deadline for registering tickets (p. 5).  An NGO affiliated with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) unveiled research showing that 41 percent of mosques in government entities have conveyed radical messages in their content (p. 5). </p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td><p>Produced since 2003, the <strong>Reformasi Weekly Review</strong> provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book <strong>Reformasi</strong>.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;<strong>kevin.orourke@reformasi.info</strong>&gt;.</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Regional Elections: Failed contestants in the major gubernatorial races acknowledged defeat, but results in five smaller provinces face possible appeals.  In total, contestants in 56 of the 171 races are attempting to dispute outcomes – but statutes will severely restrict which of these appeals can actually undergo processing (p. 7). </p><p>Election Preparations: The new Solidarity Party (PSI) is setting a new precedent by enlisting a credible independent panel to screen its legislative nominees (p. 9).</p><p>Policy News: Amid international uncertainties, policy responses proposed by Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto only pose additional risks, but the finance minister should prove able to prevent economically self‑defeating policies (p. 9).  The president is portraying the nationalization of Freeport as an economic boon, when in fact it hurts efficiency (p. 11).</p><p>Economics: The government will not revise the 2018 budget, as variables such as tax receipts are on target.  Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati argues that the hitting of targets reflects prudence; in fact, the government is keeping sizable unplanned fuel‑subsidy costs off its books, in Pertamina’s accounts.  Indrawati is crafting her messages to impress a domestic audience in an election year (p. 12). </p>

Politics: A flurry of meetings and conferences between political elites has yielded no clarity about tickets or running mates.  President Joko Widodo remains undecided about his vice‑presidential nominee and may need three more weeks.  This hampers planning for other parties (Page 2).  Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto met Partai Demokrat figures last week to discuss a possible ticket with Maj (ret) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (‘AHY’), but afterwards Partai Demokrat Chair Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made clear that the party will wait to observe Widodo’s choice before making its own move (p. 3).  Officials from National Awakening Party (PKB) registered adamant opposition to the potential selection of Mahfud Mahmodin for VP (p. 4).  Another judicial appeal – this time by Hary Tanoesoedibjo’s Perindo – attempts to weaken term limits in the Election Law to allow Jusuf Kalla to stand for a third term as VP.  But Constitutional Court justices, preoccupied by regional‑head election disputes, will almost certainly lack time to hear Perindo’s suit before the 10 August deadline for registering tickets (p. 5).  An NGO affiliated with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) unveiled research showing that 41 percent of mosques in government entities have conveyed radical messages in their content (p. 5). Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.Regional Elections: Failed contestants in the major gubernatorial races acknowledged defeat, but results in five smaller provinces face possible appeals.  In total, contestants in 56 of the 171 races are attempting to dispute outcomes – but statutes will severely restrict which of these appeals can actually undergo processing (p. 7). Election Preparations: The new Solidarity Party (PSI) is setting a new precedent by enlisting a credible independent panel to screen its legislative nominees (p. 9).Policy News: Amid international uncertainties, policy responses proposed by Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto only pose additional risks, but the finance minister should prove able to prevent economically self‑defeating policies (p. 9).  The president is portraying the nationalization of Freeport as an economic boon, when in fact it hurts efficiency (p. 11).Economics: The government will not revise the 2018 budget, as variables such as tax receipts are on target.  Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati argues that the hitting of targets reflects prudence; in fact, the government is keeping sizable unplanned fuel‑subsidy costs off its books, in Pertamina’s accounts.  Indrawati is crafting her messages to impress a domestic audience in an election year (p. 12). 

Indonesian Politics Week: Ministers on Barriers; VP Hesitation; Freeport Deal Helps Widodo (Alone)