Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Indonesia: Freeport Troubles - No End in Sight

President Jokowi Focuses on His Re-Election Bid

Indonesia: Jokowi Girds for the 2019 Election

Indonesia: Jokowi Consolidates His Moderate and Secular Position

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p><strong>Four key themes emerged from our research trip to Jakarta</strong></p><ul><li>First, the cyclical recovery in Indonesia is well underway but the upswing will be held back by the declining export intensity of the commodity-driven economy, as well as a weak manufacturing base.</li><li>Second, the economy’s resilience has strengthened of late as external risks are well contained. Inflation differentials have narrowed, the banking sector is secure and while the current account deficit is expected to worsen, it can be funded.</li><li>Third, a longer-term acceleration hinges on crucial reforms, which we believe will be undertaken after the 2019 election, including contentious reforms to law and labor laws, a consolidation of the banking sector, and expanding Indonesia’s perilously limited tax base.</li><li>Last, President Jokowi is still the man to beat in 2019: Surveys have reaffirmed widespread public satisfaction in his presidency. Nevertheless, he will tread carefully in the run up to the polls as he knows only too well that political fortunes could change very quickly.</li></ul>

Four key themes emerged from our research trip to JakartaFirst, the cyclical recovery in Indonesia is well underway but the upswing will be held back by the declining export intensity of the commodity-driven economy, as well as a weak manufacturing base.Second, the economy’s resilience has strengthened of late as external risks are well contained. Inflation differentials have narrowed, the banking sector is secure and while the current account deficit is expected to worsen, it can be funded.Third, a longer-term acceleration hinges on crucial reforms, which we believe will be undertaken after the 2019 election, including contentious reforms to law and labor laws, a consolidation of the banking sector, and expanding Indonesia’s perilously limited tax base.Last, President Jokowi is still the man to beat in 2019: Surveys have reaffirmed widespread public satisfaction in his presidency. Nevertheless, he will tread carefully in the run up to the polls as he knows only too well that political fortunes could change very quickly.

Indonesia Research Trip: Doing Well and Getting Better but Still Under-Performing Its Potential