Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Politics: President Joko Widodo will wait to unveil his running mate until 8 August or the actual deadline of 10 August.  His spokesperson confirmed that the president approved the move by Vice President (VP) Jusuf Kalla to challenge term limits in the Constitutional Court; delaying an announcement therefore serves to maximize the available time for the court to issue a possible ruling.  Delaying also keeps the opposition off guard and limits the chance for allied parties to defect (if the final VP choice disgruntles them) (Page 2).  Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono declared that “Prabowo is our presidential nominee”, even though Prabowo himself still has yet to definitively declare his candidacy.  But a Prabowo‑led ticket is highly likely, with Maj (ret) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) as the near­‑certain pick for running mate.  The conservative cleric Ahmad Somad (famed for damning Starbucks customers) received mention from Islamic activists as a suitable VP nominee, but he has flatly refused.  Officials from the Justice Welfare Party (PKS), Gerindra’s longstanding ally, advocate former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Salim Segaf – but his attributes for VP are meager and PKS leaders seem ready to accept AHY.  The National Mandate Party (Pan) may also join.  Nonetheless, a Prabowo‑AHY ticket, backed by four parties, would have weak prospects.  Further permutations prior to the 10 August deadline are therefore possible (p. 5). Election Preparations: Parties replaced most of the 202 former corruption convicts nominated for legislative posts, but they could potentially return (p. 6).Policy News: In another instance of state expansion over the real sector, Pertamina will operate the country’s largest oil field, the Rokan Block in Riau, displacing Chevron.  The energy minister cited the size of Pertamina’s signing bonus as a main reason for the decision – even though the company is under state ownership and incurs huge losses on retailing fuel.  Control‑minded policymaking squanders opportunities to leverage market forces and give the economy the boost needed to avoid a middle‑income trap (p. 7).  The energy minister reversed his proposal to remove the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal (p. 8). <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td>
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. 
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
For subscription information please contact &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
</td></tr></tbody></table>Appointments: Former two‑term South Sulawesi Governor Syahrul Yasin Limpo joins Widodo’s Staff of Special Presidential Aides (p. 10).   A sound selection committee has screened candidates for a Constitutional Court opening (p. 10).  Former Anti‑Corruption Commission (KPK) member Erry Riyana Hardjapamekas will head a transition team for West Java Governor‑Elect Ridwan Kamil (p. 11).

Politics: President Joko Widodo will wait to unveil his running mate until 8 August or the actual deadline of 10 August.  His spokesperson confirmed that the president approved the move by Vice President (VP) Jusuf Kalla to challenge term limits in the Constitutional Court; delaying an announcement therefore serves to maximize the available time for the court to issue a possible ruling.  Delaying also keeps the opposition off guard and limits the chance for allied parties to defect (if the final VP choice disgruntles them) (Page 2).  Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono declared that “Prabowo is our presidential nominee”, even though Prabowo himself still has yet to definitively declare his candidacy.  But a Prabowo‑led ticket is highly likely, with Maj (ret) Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) as the near­‑certain pick for running mate.  The conservative cleric Ahmad Somad (famed for damning Starbucks customers) received mention from Islamic activists as a suitable VP nominee, but he has flatly refused.  Officials from the Justice Welfare Party (PKS), Gerindra’s longstanding ally, advocate former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Salim Segaf – but his attributes for VP are meager and PKS leaders seem ready to accept AHY.  The National Mandate Party (Pan) may also join.  Nonetheless, a Prabowo‑AHY ticket, backed by four parties, would have weak prospects.  Further permutations prior to the 10 August deadline are therefore possible (p. 5). Election Preparations: Parties replaced most of the 202 former corruption convicts nominated for legislative posts, but they could potentially return (p. 6).Policy News: In another instance of state expansion over the real sector, Pertamina will operate the country’s largest oil field, the Rokan Block in Riau, displacing Chevron.  The energy minister cited the size of Pertamina’s signing bonus as a main reason for the decision – even though the company is under state ownership and incurs huge losses on retailing fuel.  Control‑minded policymaking squanders opportunities to leverage market forces and give the economy the boost needed to avoid a middle‑income trap (p. 7).  The energy minister reversed his proposal to remove the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal (p. 8). 
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. 
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
For subscription information please contact &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
Appointments: Former two‑term South Sulawesi Governor Syahrul Yasin Limpo joins Widodo’s Staff of Special Presidential Aides (p. 10).   A sound selection committee has screened candidates for a Constitutional Court opening (p. 10).  Former Anti‑Corruption Commission (KPK) member Erry Riyana Hardjapamekas will head a transition team for West Java Governor‑Elect Ridwan Kamil (p. 11). 

Indonesia Politics Weekly: Widodo VP in Flux; Prabowo + AHY Likely; State Displaces Chevron; Et Al