Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

Reformasi

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Politics: After President Joko Widodo gathered all six heads of parties backing his re‑election to discuss a running mate, clarity is still lacking.  He and his alliance may still aim to re‑nominate Vice President (VP) Jusuf Kalla, pending a Constitutional Court ruling on an appeal to alter term limits.  But Golkar figures, including the political scientist Rizal Mallarangeng, lambasted the appeal for “engendering authoritarianism”.  This highlights how Kalla’s re­‑engagement would be a blunder for Widodo: it would supply opponents with sorely needed ammunition for campaigning, by enabling them to deride Widodo’s commitment to democracy (Page 2).  But if Kalla is not the VP nominee, Widodo may back Islamic Clerics Council (MUI) Chair Ma’ruf Amin (75), who played a pivotal role in 2016 in instigating blasphemy charges against Jakarta Governor Basuki Purnama (‘Ahok’).  The rationale for nominating Amin is weak and the choice would adversely affect political conditions (p. 4).  Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto moved closer to an alliance, which would likely feature Yudhoyono’s elder son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), as Prabowo’s running mate (p. 6). <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td>
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. 
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
For subscription information please contact &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
</td></tr></tbody></table>Justice: Tempo cites unnamed personnel from the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) as saying that Social Affairs Minister Idrus Marham, long the secretary general of Golkar, worked at the behest of former Golkar Chair Setya Novanto to arrange kickbacks from the Kotjo family, owners of Blackgold Ltd.  This further weakens the appeal of current Party Chair Airlangga Hartarto as a potential VP nominee.  The recent decision to put Marham in the cabinet may prove costly for Widodo’s image (p. 7).  KPK officials exposed myriad illegal amenities in a Bandung jail used to hold major corruption convicts.  These include Novanto, who posed for TV cameras pretending to occupy a cramped and bleak cell – but a reporter discovered that his real cell is a spacious room elsewhere (p. 9). Policy News: Parliament passed the Bill on Revising Law #20/1997 on Non‑Tax State Income (PNBP), empowering the finance minister to rectify PNBP inefficiencies (p. 11). Economics: A US threat to remove Indonesia from the Generalized System of Preferen­ces (GSP) for trade could shave a basis point off GDP growth next year, if it curbs garment and footwear exports.  The trade minister is in Washington for talks, but Trump’s recklessness renders outcomes unpredictable (p. 11).

Politics: After President Joko Widodo gathered all six heads of parties backing his re‑election to discuss a running mate, clarity is still lacking.  He and his alliance may still aim to re‑nominate Vice President (VP) Jusuf Kalla, pending a Constitutional Court ruling on an appeal to alter term limits.  But Golkar figures, including the political scientist Rizal Mallarangeng, lambasted the appeal for “engendering authoritarianism”.  This highlights how Kalla’s re­‑engagement would be a blunder for Widodo: it would supply opponents with sorely needed ammunition for campaigning, by enabling them to deride Widodo’s commitment to democracy (Page 2).  But if Kalla is not the VP nominee, Widodo may back Islamic Clerics Council (MUI) Chair Ma’ruf Amin (75), who played a pivotal role in 2016 in instigating blasphemy charges against Jakarta Governor Basuki Purnama (‘Ahok’).  The rationale for nominating Amin is weak and the choice would adversely affect political conditions (p. 4).  Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto moved closer to an alliance, which would likely feature Yudhoyono’s elder son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), as Prabowo’s running mate (p. 6). 
Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. 
Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.
For subscription information please contact &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.
Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
Justice: Tempo cites unnamed personnel from the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) as saying that Social Affairs Minister Idrus Marham, long the secretary general of Golkar, worked at the behest of former Golkar Chair Setya Novanto to arrange kickbacks from the Kotjo family, owners of Blackgold Ltd.  This further weakens the appeal of current Party Chair Airlangga Hartarto as a potential VP nominee.  The recent decision to put Marham in the cabinet may prove costly for Widodo’s image (p. 7).  KPK officials exposed myriad illegal amenities in a Bandung jail used to hold major corruption convicts.  These include Novanto, who posed for TV cameras pretending to occupy a cramped and bleak cell – but a reporter discovered that his real cell is a spacious room elsewhere (p. 9). Policy News: Parliament passed the Bill on Revising Law #20/1997 on Non‑Tax State Income (PNBP), empowering the finance minister to rectify PNBP inefficiencies (p. 11). Economics: A US threat to remove Indonesia from the Generalized System of Preferen­ces (GSP) for trade could shave a basis point off GDP growth next year, if it curbs garment and footwear exports.  The trade minister is in Washington for talks, but Trump’s recklessness renders outcomes unpredictable (p. 11). 

Indonesia Politics Weekly: PD & Prabowo; US Reviews GSP; Anti-Ahok Cleric for VP?; New Non-Tax Law