Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Indonesia: Lacklustre Figures an Indication of Structural Weakness

Indonesia: Three Implications of Underperformance

Indonesia: Baby Steps on the Long Road of Reforms

Indonesia: External Risks Are the Biggest Threat

Indonesia: Structural Issues Weigh Down on Budget

Indonesia: Parsing the 15th Economic Policy Package

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Years of ultra-loose monetary policy in advanced economies have led investors to seek out the Indonesian capital market for higher yields. This raises the risk of sudden and abrupt capital outflows from Indonesia when monetary conditions normalise in G3 with the Fed leading the pack.</li><li>Against this backdrop, the Rupiah’s recent strength, which can be attributed to a mix of economic and political stability, can easily be reversed. Structural concerns that affect the Rupiah also need to be addressed in order to mitigate the downside risks to the currency. Politically, Jokowi retains the initiative and that will calm the currency market to an extent but the opposition is also shaping up in the lead-up to presidential elections in 2019.</li><li>Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals are sound and policymakers are well-equipped to ameliorate destabilising factors that afflict the Rupiah, following the experience of the taper tantrum in 2013. That being said, watch out for inevitable and intermittent spikes in currency volatility in 2H17.</li></ul>

Years of ultra-loose monetary policy in advanced economies have led investors to seek out the Indonesian capital market for higher yields. This raises the risk of sudden and abrupt capital outflows from Indonesia when monetary conditions normalise in G3 with the Fed leading the pack.Against this backdrop, the Rupiah’s recent strength, which can be attributed to a mix of economic and political stability, can easily be reversed. Structural concerns that affect the Rupiah also need to be addressed in order to mitigate the downside risks to the currency. Politically, Jokowi retains the initiative and that will calm the currency market to an extent but the opposition is also shaping up in the lead-up to presidential elections in 2019.Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals are sound and policymakers are well-equipped to ameliorate destabilising factors that afflict the Rupiah, following the experience of the taper tantrum in 2013. That being said, watch out for inevitable and intermittent spikes in currency volatility in 2H17.

Indonesia: Can the Rupiah's Stability Last?