Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Indonesia: Loose Mobility Curbs Fail to Spruce Up The Economy

Indonesia: Budding Signs of a Turnaround, But Watch The IDR

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

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Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>Bank Indonesia kept policy rates unchanged - as expected and in line with market consensus. BI is toeing a delicate line between supporting the domestic economy and keeping downside risks for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22831:1" rel="noopener">IDR (USDIDR CURNCY)</a> to a minimum. Our view, albeit a contrarian one, is for BI to raise rates once later this year to fend off the downward pressure on the Rupiah as the external recovery in global demand, and particularly in the US, firms up.</li>
<li>The government bungled the messaging for the tax amnesty. Contrary to remarks by the coordinating economics minister, the government intends to step up enforcement checks on once-delinquent tax payers who registered for the 2017 tax amnesty. The tax measures appear to be targeted at affluent and well-heeled Indonesians. As such, the measures are revenue-positive, but it will not do much to broaden the tax base or bring the informal sector into the tax net.</li>
</ul>


Bank Indonesia kept policy rates unchanged - as expected and in line with market consensus. BI is toeing a delicate line between supporting the domestic economy and keeping downside risks for IDR (USDIDR CURNCY) to a minimum. Our view, albeit a contrarian one, is for BI to raise rates once later this year to fend off the downward pressure on the Rupiah as the external recovery in global demand, and particularly in the US, firms up.
The government bungled the messaging for the tax amnesty. Contrary to remarks by the coordinating economics minister, the government intends to step up enforcement checks on once-delinquent tax payers who registered for the 2017 tax amnesty. The tax measures appear to be targeted at affluent and well-heeled Indonesians. As such, the measures are revenue-positive, but it will not do much to broaden the tax base or bring the informal sector into the tax net.


Indonesia: Bungled Messaging Aside, Tax Measures Do Not Go Far Enough