ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In times of fluid Rupiah situation like now, we take Rupiah as the leading indicator over stock market, not the other way around.</li><li>Stabilizing forex reserves and improving CAD/GDP ratio are keys to Rupiah stability.</li><li>Bank Indonesia, the new governor in particular, should establish credibility quickly by decisive rate hikes (if Rupiah depreciates swiftly in a month or two).</li><li>We only recommend selective exposures to exporters (commodity producers), defensive consumer stalwart, and big banks benefiting from rate hikes.</li></ul>

In times of fluid Rupiah situation like now, we take Rupiah as the leading indicator over stock market, not the other way around.Stabilizing forex reserves and improving CAD/GDP ratio are keys to Rupiah stability.Bank Indonesia, the new governor in particular, should establish credibility quickly by decisive rate hikes (if Rupiah depreciates swiftly in a month or two).We only recommend selective exposures to exporters (commodity producers), defensive consumer stalwart, and big banks benefiting from rate hikes.

Indo Strategy: What If EM Contagion Unravels?