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The release of 3Q numbers for the major Indian operators concluded with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/953" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953">Bharti Airtel Ltd</a> (Bharti) on Thursday. Reported earnings have been weaker than expected, perhaps victim to a slowing macro picture. However, Bharti remains the pick of the listed telcos and is positioned to continue to gain market share. While Bharti has its issues, most specifically with Africa, but in India it has scale and is delivering on this. We discussed the benefits of scale in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-urge-to-merge-em-telcos-look-at-consolidation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1930">The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation</a>. As we have seen in other markets, the shift to data empowers the largest player as there appears to be real scale benefits. Unlike Indonesia and China, Bharti is the largest, but not dominant player, so this theme can play out for some time without regulatory concern. In Indonesia and China we have seen moves to push network sharing to reduce costs for smaller players. In India, the largest player should be able to extend its advantage, even with the Jio launch still imminent.There was news late last week that the regulator (TRAI) was proposing a large auction with a reserve price of $79bn. The plan is to offer 150MHZ of spectrum (adding almost 50% to total holdings) with much of this in 700MHZ band. These prices are astonishingly high in a stretched industry struggling to maintain any sort of service. They are not in a position to pay (or finance this) suggesting much will not be sold, the industry will be left spectrum starved and quality coverage will remain a problem. India could learn a lot from Indonesia in terms of the path to market repair and increased investment.

The release of 3Q numbers for the major Indian operators concluded with Bharti Airtel Ltd (Bharti) on Thursday. Reported earnings have been weaker than expected, perhaps victim to a slowing macro picture. However, Bharti remains the pick of the listed telcos and is positioned to continue to gain market share. While Bharti has its issues, most specifically with Africa, but in India it has scale and is delivering on this. We discussed the benefits of scale in The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation. As we have seen in other markets, the shift to data empowers the largest player as there appears to be real scale benefits. Unlike Indonesia and China, Bharti is the largest, but not dominant player, so this theme can play out for some time without regulatory concern. In Indonesia and China we have seen moves to push network sharing to reduce costs for smaller players. In India, the largest player should be able to extend its advantage, even with the Jio launch still imminent.There was news late last week that the regulator (TRAI) was proposing a large auction with a reserve price of $79bn. The plan is to offer 150MHZ of spectrum (adding almost 50% to total holdings) with much of this in 700MHZ band. These prices are astonishingly high in a stretched industry struggling to maintain any sort of service. They are not in a position to pay (or finance this) suggesting much will not be sold, the industry will be left spectrum starved and quality coverage will remain a problem. India could learn a lot from Indonesia in terms of the path to market repair and increased investment. 

Indian Telcos: A Mixed Bag Ahead of Jio Launch