Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

India: Economy Runs into Speed Bumps in 2Q21

India: Still In Crisis Despite Signs that Infections Are Easing

India: Recovery Loses Steam Further in May

India: Recovery Looks Increasingly Tenuous But Modi Will Survive

India: Growth Narrative Risks Coming Undone

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

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Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p>Assembly elections were held in five states outside the Hindi heartland where the ruling BJP has its base. The result was a clear rebuff to Premier Modi’s ruling BJP party. 4 key takeaways:</p><ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>First, the limits of the Hindu nationalism that the BJP espouses are being reached. While the BJP’s vote share in West Bengal soared, it still fell far short of winning the state as it had expected – despite a massive personal effort by Modi and his senior colleagues. It barely made gains in south India though it held onto its strong position in Assam.</li>
<li>Second, the BJP’s opponents are finding ways to blunt the BJP’s use of Hindu nationalism, showing they can maintain their appeal to Hindus while not forsaking the Muslim vote, which is significant in states such as West Bengal and Kerala.</li>
<li>Third, it looks like the BJP was under-performing electorally even before the horrendous surge in COVID infections and deaths might have turned voters against it. It is fair to assume that its current standing with voters is probably even worse than the results showed.</li>
<li>Finally, the Indian polity remains highly fragmented. The former ruling party, the Indian National Congress continued to lose votes and only parties with a limited regional base appear able to stand up to the BJP. That fact may help the BJP maintain its overall grip on national power.</li>
</ul>

Assembly elections were held in five states outside the Hindi heartland where the ruling BJP has its base. The result was a clear rebuff to Premier Modi’s ruling BJP party. 4 key takeaways:
First, the limits of the Hindu nationalism that the BJP espouses are being reached. While the BJP’s vote share in West Bengal soared, it still fell far short of winning the state as it had expected – despite a massive personal effort by Modi and his senior colleagues. It barely made gains in south India though it held onto its strong position in Assam.
Second, the BJP’s opponents are finding ways to blunt the BJP’s use of Hindu nationalism, showing they can maintain their appeal to Hindus while not forsaking the Muslim vote, which is significant in states such as West Bengal and Kerala.
Third, it looks like the BJP was under-performing electorally even before the horrendous surge in COVID infections and deaths might have turned voters against it. It is fair to assume that its current standing with voters is probably even worse than the results showed.
Finally, the Indian polity remains highly fragmented. The former ruling party, the Indian National Congress continued to lose votes and only parties with a limited regional base appear able to stand up to the BJP. That fact may help the BJP maintain its overall grip on national power.


India State Elections: BJP’s Political Juggernaut Stopped In Its Tracks