Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>RBI Governor Urjit Patel is not going to resign and nor are interest rates going to rise again this year. Even so we see no upside. The Indian stockmarket has been rebounding since the end of October. Make no mistake this is nothing but a relief rally. It won’t last. Growth is set to soften. The corporate profit cycle is fragile, the credit cycle in downswing. The troubles in the NBFC sector and the banking system are not over. The government’s fiscal position is deteriorating.  With the trade deficit showing few signs of reversing we see no relief for the rupee either.</p>

RBI Governor Urjit Patel is not going to resign and nor are interest rates going to rise again this year. Even so we see no upside. The Indian stockmarket has been rebounding since the end of October. Make no mistake this is nothing but a relief rally. It won’t last. Growth is set to soften. The corporate profit cycle is fragile, the credit cycle in downswing. The troubles in the NBFC sector and the banking system are not over. The government’s fiscal position is deteriorating.  With the trade deficit showing few signs of reversing we see no relief for the rupee either.

India & RBI - No Resignation, No Rate Increase, No Upside