Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Riedel CNBC Interview - Opportunities in EM During Market Volatility

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

US corporate profit expectations for 2018 and 2019 have peaked out in recent weeks, while the correction in US equity prices since late-January has put their valuation onto a more tenable level.The prospective behaviour of inflation will be critical to the sustainability of current equity valuations, while inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities currently suggest secular deterioration is currently unlikely.Excessive monetary growth was historically associated with rising inflation, and, consequently, detrimental to financial markets, but the post-Great Recession environment has witnessed well-anchored inflation expectations, courtesy of a collapse in the velocity of circulation of money, thereby producing a bullish backdrop for financial asset inflation.Periods of economic and financial excesses funded by rising private sector leverage, such as the late-1920s and prior to the last financial crisis, have historically been followed by a collapse in the velocity of circulation of money due to deleveraging.Broad money supply and bank credit growth have decelerated since late-2016 to historically worrying levels, normally associated with looming economic deceleration or recession.

US corporate profit expectations for 2018 and 2019 have peaked out in recent weeks, while the correction in US equity prices since late-January has put their valuation onto a more tenable level.The prospective behaviour of inflation will be critical to the sustainability of current equity valuations, while inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities currently suggest secular deterioration is currently unlikely.Excessive monetary growth was historically associated with rising inflation, and, consequently, detrimental to financial markets, but the post-Great Recession environment has witnessed well-anchored inflation expectations, courtesy of a collapse in the velocity of circulation of money, thereby producing a bullish backdrop for financial asset inflation.Periods of economic and financial excesses funded by rising private sector leverage, such as the late-1920s and prior to the last financial crisis, have historically been followed by a collapse in the velocity of circulation of money due to deleveraging.Broad money supply and bank credit growth have decelerated since late-2016 to historically worrying levels, normally associated with looming economic deceleration or recession.

Improved US Monetary Transmission Mechanism Poses Risks for Equity Investors