European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Hearing Examiner Recommends Against Iberdrola (Avangrid)/PNM Resources Deal

Iberdrola/PNM Resources: PRC Vetoes the Purchase of PNM

Iberdrola/PNM Resources: Longstop Date Extension

PNM Resources - Iberdrola, Work-In-Progress, Attractive Spread

PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition

Event-Driven

There are two approvals pending:
<ul>
<li>
New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (PRC)
</li>
<li>
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
</li>
</ul>
PRC hearing examiner, Ashley Schannauer, wants Avangrid to address concerns and explain why the company didn't make some disclosures ($25 million in penalties and disallowances for poor service over the past 16 months). The hearing examiner order directs the filing companies to submit response proposals by 18 May and tentatively scheduled a status conference to determine next steps by 28 May.
Meanwhile Iberdrola has posted solid Q1 results and has announced that it will subscribe to 81.5% ($3,260 mn) of Avangrid's $4 bn increase, with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, top shareholder in Iberdrola with a 6% stake) subscribing the remaining $740 mn.
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The concerns of the PRC hearing examiner, although legitimate in my view, are more akin to a public dress down "you kids have been very naughty", but should not significantly delay the approvals needed for the acquisition of PNM. The deal seems on track for completion during H2 2021.
PNM closed on 12 May at $49.15, vs. an offer price of $50.3.
</div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>which represents a gross spread of 2.3%, c. 4.6% annualized (assuming the deal completes in six months), which I consider attractive for a low-risk deal that is almost certainly to close in H2 2021.</li>
<li>Reiterate Long PNM.</li>
</ul>

There are two approvals pending:


New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (PRC)


Nuclear Regulatory Commission


PRC hearing examiner, Ashley Schannauer, wants Avangrid to address concerns and explain why the company didn't make some disclosures ($25 million in penalties and disallowances for poor service over the past 16 months). The hearing examiner order directs the filing companies to submit response proposals by 18 May and tentatively scheduled a status conference to determine next steps by 28 May.
Meanwhile Iberdrola has posted solid Q1 results and has announced that it will subscribe to 81.5% ($3,260 mn) of Avangrid's $4 bn increase, with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, top shareholder in Iberdrola with a 6% stake) subscribing the remaining $740 mn.

The concerns of the PRC hearing examiner, although legitimate in my view, are more akin to a public dress down "you kids have been very naughty", but should not significantly delay the approvals needed for the acquisition of PNM. The deal seems on track for completion during H2 2021.
PNM closed on 12 May at $49.15, vs. an offer price of $50.3.


which represents a gross spread of 2.3%, c. 4.6% annualized (assuming the deal completes in six months), which I consider attractive for a low-risk deal that is almost certainly to close in H2 2021.
Reiterate Long PNM.


Iberdrola (Avangrid)/PNM Resources: Regulator's Reprimand and Capital Increase