Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.

Research and consultancy

HSBC Holdings – Turkey, Argentina Bank Data Does Not Bode Well For HSBC

HSBC – Credit Costs Double, Loans Decelerate, Fee Income Declines, Cost/Income Up

HSBC – Deciphering Credit Quality Under New IFRS 9 Accounting

HSBC Holdings – TRY Devaluation Is the First Major Devaulation Under IFRS 9, Risk for HSBC Is Real

HSBC – $7 Billion Valuation Hole on BoCom and Other Sundry 1H18 Data

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Under new IFRS 9 accounting analysts are in a totally new environment with the devaluation in Turkey and Argentina. There will be other impacts too, in other regions. This is the first major devaluation since the new accounting regime took hold in January 2018 and as such there could be a wide variance of impairment estimates or Expected Credit Losses (ECL) as they are now called. This can create a negative surprise. We show in some detail below, how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> can see a dramatic rise in ECL during 2H18, from Turkey and Argentina. We believe that the actual numbers will be far higher than what most are currently expecting, and they can dwarf Group ECL during 1H18. Where HSBC is now taking historically low impairment charges, it means that even a small rise from Turkey, Argentina, or another region, can have a meaningful impact on Group ECL.</p>

Under new IFRS 9 accounting analysts are in a totally new environment with the devaluation in Turkey and Argentina. There will be other impacts too, in other regions. This is the first major devaluation since the new accounting regime took hold in January 2018 and as such there could be a wide variance of impairment estimates or Expected Credit Losses (ECL) as they are now called. This can create a negative surprise. We show in some detail below, how HSBC Holdings (5 HK) can see a dramatic rise in ECL during 2H18, from Turkey and Argentina. We believe that the actual numbers will be far higher than what most are currently expecting, and they can dwarf Group ECL during 1H18. Where HSBC is now taking historically low impairment charges, it means that even a small rise from Turkey, Argentina, or another region, can have a meaningful impact on Group ECL.

HSBC Holdings – Credit Costs In Turkey, Argentina Can Cause Group Credit Costs To Rise 3-4x