Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Asia Group (3751) : Defense Against Hostile TOB Is Bad News

Murakami-San Launches New JAG (3751) Tender Offer

City Index Eleventh OFFICIALLY Launches Next Japan Asia Group (3751) Hostile Tender Offer

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Two days ago, real estate firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoosiers-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9163:1" rel="noopener">Hoosiers Holdings (3284 JP)</a> announced an increase in their <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/flrZ/POPX.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> for OP, and net income in the year to 31 March 2021. Revenue was expected unchanged from the previous forecast at ¥80bn, OP is up 20% to ¥4.2bn, and net income is forecast to be ¥2.4bn, up one-third. They also increased a forecast dividend increase. lifting the H2 dividend from ¥7/share to ¥11/share. The stock opened up 6% the next day, but fell during the day and then fell some more today so the stock is only 1.5% higher than that news.Today after the close, the company released a revised Shareholder Returns Policy (<a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/lQzd/kIav.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>), which lifts the payout ratio to 40%, or more, and the Distribution of Equity rate to 4%, or more, per year. There is a longer <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/lQzd/Llxd.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> explaining the policy, including a large buyback. The company also <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/lQzd/o1s4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finalised</a> plans to get out of the biomass renewable energy operations.The company also released a big picture <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/lQzd/CCy7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summary</a> of its next Mid Term Management Plan which goes from April 1 to March 2026, including plans to lift revenues about 15% but to improve profitability by 150-200%, depending on the measure.<div class="content-highlight">
The company also <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C3284/HTFv/lQzd/niZK.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a plan to conduct a buyback of 21,637,500 of its own shares (37.6% of shares out) in a tender offer at ¥684/share, with the intention to cancel ~95% of the shares it buys back. 
This is big news.
</div>Not coincidentally, this is quite similar to the size of the position held by entities controlled by activist Yoshiaki Murakami, which was 21,570,200 shares as of most recently according to the announcement. Nota Bene: for most investors, you won't want to consider this a partial put option. There's a reason for that.More below.

Two days ago, real estate firm Hoosiers Holdings (3284 JP) announced an increase in their forecast for OP, and net income in the year to 31 March 2021. Revenue was expected unchanged from the previous forecast at ¥80bn, OP is up 20% to ¥4.2bn, and net income is forecast to be ¥2.4bn, up one-third. They also increased a forecast dividend increase. lifting the H2 dividend from ¥7/share to ¥11/share. The stock opened up 6% the next day, but fell during the day and then fell some more today so the stock is only 1.5% higher than that news.Today after the close, the company released a revised Shareholder Returns Policy (Japanese), which lifts the payout ratio to 40%, or more, and the Distribution of Equity rate to 4%, or more, per year. There is a longer presentation explaining the policy, including a large buyback. The company also finalised plans to get out of the biomass renewable energy operations.The company also released a big picture summary of its next Mid Term Management Plan which goes from April 1 to March 2026, including plans to lift revenues about 15% but to improve profitability by 150-200%, depending on the measure.
The company also announced a plan to conduct a buyback of 21,637,500 of its own shares (37.6% of shares out) in a tender offer at ¥684/share, with the intention to cancel ~95% of the shares it buys back. 
This is big news.
Not coincidentally, this is quite similar to the size of the position held by entities controlled by activist Yoshiaki Murakami, which was 21,570,200 shares as of most recently according to the announcement. Nota Bene: for most investors, you won't want to consider this a partial put option. There's a reason for that.More below.

Hoosiers (3284) Tender Offer Buyback To Buy Out Activist Murakami