Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Honda – Margin Guidance Is Conservative but Credit Provisions Could Still Drive a YoY Decline

Conviction Call Mazda – 1Q and FY OP Beats Should Be Biggest in Sector

Honda – GM Strategic Alliance Unlikely to Achieve Much

Honda – Profit Jump as Costs Are Suppressed

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 3Q Honda generated revenue of ¥3,710bn (+1.6% QoQ, -1.0% YoY) and operating profit of ¥278bn (for an OPM of 7.5% compared to the OPMs of 4.5% and 7.7% respectively in 3QFY20 and 2QFY21). Revenue was 2.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥101bn (58% higher). OP guidance was raised by 24% but revenue guidance was reduced by 1%. This is a slight concern as Honda may be focusing excessively on cost control and this could hurt future top line growth.</p>

In 3Q Honda generated revenue of ¥3,710bn (+1.6% QoQ, -1.0% YoY) and operating profit of ¥278bn (for an OPM of 7.5% compared to the OPMs of 4.5% and 7.7% respectively in 3QFY20 and 2QFY21). Revenue was 2.2% higher than consensus estimates, while operating profit beat consensus by ¥101bn (58% higher). OP guidance was raised by 24% but revenue guidance was reduced by 1%. This is a slight concern as Honda may be focusing excessively on cost control and this could hurt future top line growth.

Honda – Strong Margins but Downward Volume Guidance Revision Leaves a Bad Impression

Honda Motor

Honda – Strong Margins but Downward Volume Guidance Revision Leaves a Bad Impression