Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK economic data was mostly as expected, but increased services inflation tipped the balance towards a hawkish stance. The ECB maintained flexibility but is likely to cut rates in September, and the BoE may need to reassess previous data to avoid a rate cut in August.</li><li>The Bank of Canada may respond to rising unemployment and low inflation with a likely consecutive rate cut, rather than adhering to the Fed's hold position.</li><li>Key data to watch include the flash PMIs, US GDP for Q2, and core PCE inflation for June.</li></ul>

UK economic data was mostly as expected, but increased services inflation tipped the balance towards a hawkish stance. The ECB maintained flexibility but is likely to cut rates in September, and the BoE may need to reassess previous data to avoid a rate cut in August.The Bank of Canada may respond to rising unemployment and low inflation with a likely consecutive rate cut, rather than adhering to the Fed's hold position.Key data to watch include the flash PMIs, US GDP for Q2, and core PCE inflation for June.

HEW: Rate Cuts Not Boxed-In