European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Alpha Auto Group/​​Lookers: Sharp Turn

Hedin Group/Pendragon: Fresh Takeover Approach

Hedin Group/​Pendragon: Closer To Clinch a Deal

Alpha Auto Group/​Lookers: From Done Deal to Uncertain Situation

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: Consolidation at a Cheap Offer Price

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>My comparables derived valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendragon-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22080:1" rel="noopener">Pendragon PLC (PDG LN)</a> is 32p/share, above the value of Lithia's "package" and spot-on Hedin's unsolicited &amp; preliminary revised offer (well above its initial lowball offer).</li>
<li>The market seems skeptical about the future prospects of Pinewood. Putting it on a 13.3x multiple, the value of the business would still be c. 11p/share, hardly a game-changer.</li>
<li>The revised Hedin's offer is 17% above Lithia's, with no execution risk (Hedin backing off again seems less likely), and probably enough to win Board's recommendation. Gross spread, 5.6%. Long.</li>
</ul>


My comparables derived valuation of Pendragon PLC (PDG LN) is 32p/share, above the value of Lithia's "package" and spot-on Hedin's unsolicited &amp; preliminary revised offer (well above its initial lowball offer).
The market seems skeptical about the future prospects of Pinewood. Putting it on a 13.3x multiple, the value of the business would still be c. 11p/share, hardly a game-changer.
The revised Hedin's offer is 17% above Lithia's, with no execution risk (Hedin backing off again seems less likely), and probably enough to win Board's recommendation. Gross spread, 5.6%. Long.


Pendragon PLC

Hedin and Lithia Struggle for Pendragon