Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

3Q Should Be In-Line, 4Q Should Beat but We Believe There Is a Few % Downside Risk Tomorrow

Weak HCM Guidance Causes Jitters but We Expect Another Good Year; Favour Komatsu Temporarily

HCM Vs. Komatsu: Regional Momentum Comparison and Valuations

Hitachi Construction: ST Buy on Earnings Momentum, Spate of Analyst Upgrades Warrants LT Caution

Hitachi Construction Machinery: Great Quarter Guys!

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>HCM released extremely strong 3Q earnings today with revenue up 42% YoY, and 6.5% QoQ. OPM continued its upward climb, breaching the double-digit barrier to hit 11.0%, up from 9.7% in 2Q. The company generated JPY66bn in OP for the 9 months to Dec 17 (cf. consensus annual OP forecasts of JPY67bn) and this puts even our high-end estimate of JPY85bn at risk of being too low. 4Q is traditionally the strongest quarter for HCM though seasonality is impacted by the timing of Chinese New Year. Even…</p>

HCM released extremely strong 3Q earnings today with revenue up 42% YoY, and 6.5% QoQ. OPM continued its upward climb, breaching the double-digit barrier to hit 11.0%, up from 9.7% in 2Q. The company generated JPY66bn in OP for the 9 months to Dec 17 (cf. consensus annual OP forecasts of JPY67bn) and this puts even our high-end estimate of JPY85bn at risk of being too low. 4Q is traditionally the strongest quarter for HCM though seasonality is impacted by the timing of Chinese New Year. Even…

HCM: Consensus OP JPY67bn, Guidance Raised to JPY77bn, JPY100bn Possible