Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Extended Fed Policy Pause Puts Focus on US Equity-Bond Valuation Imbalance

Inflationary Expectations and Service Sector Inflation: Crucial to Fed Interest Rate Reductions

Healthy Private Sector Balance Sheets Could Limit Scope for Fed Policy Easing

US Banking System: Repeat of 2008 Unlikely as Fed Separates Balance Sheet from Interest Rate Policy

Fed Holds Its Nerve, but Banking System Liquidity Issues Persist

Fed's Inflation Fight: Upended by Banking System Concerns?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The upside performance of the US economy in 2023 H1 suggests rising short-term interest rates are having a lower impact on activity compared to historic norms.</li>
<li>Since the global financial crisis (GFC), corporate access to credit has risen due to another wave of disintermediation, while rising profits have significantly reduced interest coverage ratios and increased liquidity.</li>
<li>The debt boom since the GFC may have lowered the efficacy of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions due to the reduced role of the banking system.</li>
</ul>


The upside performance of the US economy in 2023 H1 suggests rising short-term interest rates are having a lower impact on activity compared to historic norms.
Since the global financial crisis (GFC), corporate access to credit has risen due to another wave of disintermediation, while rising profits have significantly reduced interest coverage ratios and increased liquidity.
The debt boom since the GFC may have lowered the efficacy of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions due to the reduced role of the banking system.


Have Post-2009 Credit Upheavals Imparted Greater US Economic Resilience to Tighter Fed Policy?