Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thoughts on Amazon –What Does Its Valuation Tells Us?

Netflix & Amazon Expand in Korea – Not a Coincidence

Okja: The Fight Between Netflix Vs. CJ CGV

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hong kong Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><em>An H/A Spread Monitor Project offering a brief look at recent changes in H-Share and A-Share spreads, Southbound flow and impact, and where the spreads are trading within their own historical ranges.</em></p>
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<h2>The Nitty-Gritty Details Follow</h2>
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<p>There are five sets of data for now:<br>1.   HK-Shanghai Connect Southbound Turnover and Net Buying vs Indices and HKEx Turnover<br>2.   Top 20 Net Southbound buys and sells over the last 5 days<br>3.   H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes in Discount over 1 and 4 wks, Changes in Southbound Flow<br>4.   Southbound Flow as a % of Volume and Float on All Eligible Stocks<br>5.   H-Share/A-Share Sector Discount Ranges and Averages Charted Over the Last 12 months </p>
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<h2>Historical Southbound Flows:  Outright &amp; vs HKEx Turnover</h2>
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<p>Net Southbound flows continue to be somewhat lacklustre. November was negative after a couple of positive months. December so far is very mildly positive. Northbound had been strongly positive for months, but say RMB 5.8bn of outflows in October only to rebound to RMB +32.5bn in November. So far this month, NB is positive too.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/004/original/Screenshot%202018-12-12%20at%207.33.34%20PM.png?1544614446" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73004"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">data source: capitalIQ, HKEx, calculations Travis Lundy</div>

An H/A Spread Monitor Project offering a brief look at recent changes in H-Share and A-Share spreads, Southbound flow and impact, and where the spreads are trading within their own historical ranges.

The Nitty-Gritty Details Follow

There are five sets of data for now: 1.   HK-Shanghai Connect Southbound Turnover and Net Buying vs Indices and HKEx Turnover 2.   Top 20 Net Southbound buys and sells over the last 5 days 3.   H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes in Discount over 1 and 4 wks, Changes in Southbound Flow 4.   Southbound Flow as a % of Volume and Float on All Eligible Stocks 5.   H-Share/A-Share Sector Discount Ranges and Averages Charted Over the Last 12 months 

Historical Southbound Flows:  Outright &amp; vs HKEx Turnover

Net Southbound flows continue to be somewhat lacklustre. November was negative after a couple of positive months. December so far is very mildly positive. Northbound had been strongly positive for months, but say RMB 5.8bn of outflows in October only to rebound to RMB +32.5bn in November. So far this month, NB is positive too.

data source: capitalIQ, HKEx, calculations Travis Lundy

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Spread & Southbound Monitor - Going Into Year End