GVC Holdings - Q3 trading update shows continued progress

In a continuation of previous trends, GVC’s Q318 trading update has demonstrated strong growth and market share gains across all territories. Total net gaming revenues (NGR) were up 14%, driven by a 28% growth in online NGR. UK retail was only down 2%, helped by a strong FIFA World Cup. The integration of Ladbrokes is progressing well, although GVC has announced that Paul Bowtell (former Ladbrokes CFO) will resign in March 2019. Our estimates remain unchanged, but there is a £20-25m risk to our EBITDA forecasts, following an anticipated increase in remote gaming duty (RGD) at the government’s budget on 29 October. The stock has fallen 19% from recent highs and trades at 10.0x EV/EBITDA and 13.0x P/E for 2018e.