Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Broad-based slowdown: Flash Manufacturing PMI showed output contracting and new orders falling. Investment growth was the lowest in 15 years while the 1Q15 balance of payments deficit of USD80bn resulted from a record quarterly net capital outflow offsetting a huge current account surplus.</li><li>Policy shift focuses to cyclical risks: The severity of the cyclical downturn has prompted policymakers to turn their sights on spurring cyclical growth drivers, and could distract from the long-term economic restructuring.</li><li>Growing external risk: The investment rate is likely decline faster than the savings rate, meaning that China&rsquo;s current account surplus could rise substantially, which could prompt a backlash from the US and other deficit countries.</li></ul>

Broad-based slowdown: Flash Manufacturing PMI showed output contracting and new orders falling. Investment growth was the lowest in 15 years while the 1Q15 balance of payments deficit of USD80bn resulted from a record quarterly net capital outflow offsetting a huge current account surplus.Policy shift focuses to cyclical risks: The severity of the cyclical downturn has prompted policymakers to turn their sights on spurring cyclical growth drivers, and could distract from the long-term economic restructuring.Growing external risk: The investment rate is likely decline faster than the savings rate, meaning that China&rsquo;s current account surplus could rise substantially, which could prompt a backlash from the US and other deficit countries.

Growing cyclical risks in China