Greggs - Very tasty

Greggs’ FY19 PBT was 1% ahead of our expectations and current trading suggests it will continue to take market share in the growing food-on-the-go market. Greggs has many opportunities to accelerate growth in the medium term: more and larger stores; the shift from a single channel to multichannel; further product innovation; and more investment in its supply chain, funded by strong cash generation. There is near-term risk, as with the sector in general, if the coronavirus results in people staying away from public places. Our PBT forecast for FY20 increases by 2% and our DCF-based valuation increases by c 4% to 2,188p.