FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

Alternative Brexit Vote on Monday May Lift GBP

May Opens a Path to Unlock the Brexit Jam

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.</li>
<li>The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.</li>
<li>Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.</li>
<li>US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.</li>
<li>Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.</li>
<li>Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.</li>
<li>Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.</li>
<li>Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.</li>
</ul>


The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth.
The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum.
Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low.
US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support for the USD, and further support safe havens like gold.
Canadian real long term yields have fallen more abruptly than in the USA, into negative territory, suggesting the outlook for the Canadian economy has deteriorated more than most. This may relate to concern over a peaking in the Canadian housing market. The fall in real yields suggests further downside risk for the CAD.
Long term inflation breakevens have fallen in Australia sharply since September last year to now well below the RBA’s 2.5% inflation target.
Australian leading indicators of the labour market have turned lower, albeit from solid levels, and may be enough, combined with broader evidence of weaker growth, for the RBA to announce an easing bias as soon as April.
Asian trade data and flash PMI data for major countries point to ongoing and significant weakness in global trade.


Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump