Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Global Trade: US-China Deadlock Continues but New Alliances Give New Life to Multilateralism

World Trade: Step in Right Direction with US-EU Trade Rapprochement but Scepticism Remains

World Trade: Cyclical Growth Intact Despite Some Moderation

US Playing Hardball on Tariffs as China and EU Prepare to Retaliate

Bedeviled US-China Ties Make Agreement on Trade Issues More Difficult

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s switch to a more measured response in the trade spat with the US reflects the fact that China’s options for retaliation each come with heavy costs.</li>
<li>Squeezing US corporates, which are also opposed to the imposition of tariffs, or resorting to financial measures such as selling down American debt, are counter-productive and would not cause substantive pain to the US economy.</li>
<li>Instead, China is likely to proceed with a set of patient and calibrated responses, mixing some retaliation and restraint so as to avoid an all-out trade war with the US. Things might get worse in the near term but an eventual compromise remains the most likely scenario.</li>
</ul>


China’s switch to a more measured response in the trade spat with the US reflects the fact that China’s options for retaliation each come with heavy costs.
Squeezing US corporates, which are also opposed to the imposition of tariffs, or resorting to financial measures such as selling down American debt, are counter-productive and would not cause substantive pain to the US economy.
Instead, China is likely to proceed with a set of patient and calibrated responses, mixing some retaliation and restraint so as to avoid an all-out trade war with the US. Things might get worse in the near term but an eventual compromise remains the most likely scenario.


Global Trade: Will Chinese Reaction Escalate Tensions?