Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Asia Tech Exports: Slowing Momentum, but Underlying Demand Remains Resilient

Asian Electronics: Near-Term Bearish But Secular Trends Remain Solid

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

There is huge pent-up demand for capital spending which we believe will be released soon, for several key reasons: <ul>
<li>Regime shifts in fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies will reduce risks for businesses while enhancing potential returns from capacity expansions.</li>
<li>The pandemic has forced many changes in working and business practices which require additional investment.</li>
<li>There are multiple technological revolutions underway that will raise the risk-adjusted return on investment in the medium term. The impact of advances in computing power married to enhanced communications is already well established. But there are also game-changing innovations elsewhere – renewable energy, bio-medical advances, new materials, and advanced manufacturing processes.</li>
<li>We expect a smooth hand-off from the current upturn in business investment that is partly driven by robust goods demand to a housing-led investment boom. We are also on the cusp of a new wave of physical infrastructure spending the world over.</li>
<li>De-carbonising the world economy will also require substantial new spending.</li>
</ul>Which EM Asian economies are relatively well-positioned to benefit from the multi-year capex upturn?<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia are poised to outperform the rest of the region.</li>
<li>On the other end of the spectrum, India, Hong Kong and Indonesia will underperform.</li>
<li>However, exporters of commodities which benefit from infrastructure spending should do well. Indonesia and the Philippines, for example, will benefit from greater demand for their exports of base metals such as copper and nickel.</li>
</ul>

There is huge pent-up demand for capital spending which we believe will be released soon, for several key reasons: 
Regime shifts in fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies will reduce risks for businesses while enhancing potential returns from capacity expansions.
The pandemic has forced many changes in working and business practices which require additional investment.
There are multiple technological revolutions underway that will raise the risk-adjusted return on investment in the medium term. The impact of advances in computing power married to enhanced communications is already well established. But there are also game-changing innovations elsewhere – renewable energy, bio-medical advances, new materials, and advanced manufacturing processes.
We expect a smooth hand-off from the current upturn in business investment that is partly driven by robust goods demand to a housing-led investment boom. We are also on the cusp of a new wave of physical infrastructure spending the world over.
De-carbonising the world economy will also require substantial new spending.
Which EM Asian economies are relatively well-positioned to benefit from the multi-year capex upturn?
Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia are poised to outperform the rest of the region.
On the other end of the spectrum, India, Hong Kong and Indonesia will underperform.
However, exporters of commodities which benefit from infrastructure spending should do well. Indonesia and the Philippines, for example, will benefit from greater demand for their exports of base metals such as copper and nickel.


Global Capital Spending Renaissance to Boost Asian Exports