Remaining Risk Hurdles and Where Longs Are Focused

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

US internals played a key role in a secondary pullback into our late March expected cycle trough. Transports break below 9,000 is a weak sector signal and must retake this support in April. Small caps were another weak sector along with energy that weighed on the broader market as did the give back in financials. US internals are due for a rally but will remain weak in a wave 5 rally cycle.S&amp;P buy zone remains at 2,330-20 with a bias for a slight overshoot with risk to 2,280-90.This week we delve into our slated late march/early April US cycle low and the rally expected into May/June with a bigger picture look at top pick markets.DXY fade to 99 pivot support is the focus where a break would be all out USD bearish. We expect a USD uptick and fade as a new trading range takes shape between DXY 99 and 100.60. DXY 99 under the spotlight.WTI 46 buy zone. Energy plays now look interesting again. Gold short entry on hold until treasuries inflect.EEM dip risk to 38.50 but remains bullish but lofty. DXY 99 support is a key input for EM’s in April.Long Japan – Nikkei 18,950 slice sold at 19,100 and cut the banks for a 2% loss on the back of the USD/JPY cracking our 112 stop level. We are holding longs from lower levels and probing to re set between Nikkei 18,900 and 18,500.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-6%) but looking to reverse. STI 3,135 short. Need to find another short to offset our long book. Taiwan near 10,100 is a fresh short candidate barring a re-rating.Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752. Long A share futures from 10,050. H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB, ICBC and Sinotrans. Australian banks from 6,658. Long KEPCO, Hyundai Glovis and Amorepacific. Longs in Indonesia and the Philippines on probation. Keen to buy Korea, add to India and A shares on weakness.Cycles – This week should center on a yield low, gold peak and a bottom in oil. S&amp;P reaching for a cycle low as European momentum slows. Asia is a buy on weakness.

US internals played a key role in a secondary pullback into our late March expected cycle trough. Transports break below 9,000 is a weak sector signal and must retake this support in April. Small caps were another weak sector along with energy that weighed on the broader market as did the give back in financials. US internals are due for a rally but will remain weak in a wave 5 rally cycle.S&amp;P buy zone remains at 2,330-20 with a bias for a slight overshoot with risk to 2,280-90.This week we delve into our slated late march/early April US cycle low and the rally expected into May/June with a bigger picture look at top pick markets.DXY fade to 99 pivot support is the focus where a break would be all out USD bearish. We expect a USD uptick and fade as a new trading range takes shape between DXY 99 and 100.60. DXY 99 under the spotlight.WTI 46 buy zone. Energy plays now look interesting again. Gold short entry on hold until treasuries inflect.EEM dip risk to 38.50 but remains bullish but lofty. DXY 99 support is a key input for EM’s in April.Long Japan – Nikkei 18,950 slice sold at 19,100 and cut the banks for a 2% loss on the back of the USD/JPY cracking our 112 stop level. We are holding longs from lower levels and probing to re set between Nikkei 18,900 and 18,500.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-6%) but looking to reverse. STI 3,135 short. Need to find another short to offset our long book. Taiwan near 10,100 is a fresh short candidate barring a re-rating.Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752. Long A share futures from 10,050. H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB, ICBC and Sinotrans. Australian banks from 6,658. Long KEPCO, Hyundai Glovis and Amorepacific. Longs in Indonesia and the Philippines on probation. Keen to buy Korea, add to India and A shares on weakness.Cycles – This week should center on a yield low, gold peak and a bottom in oil. S&amp;P reaching for a cycle low as European momentum slows. Asia is a buy on weakness.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index

Gearing up for Q2 Rally and Asia Macro