Games Workshop Group - Core revenue growth offsets licensing decline

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) record H123 results included strong revenue recovery in Retail as COVID-19 restrictions eased, foreign exchange gains, offset by some negative effects, specifically from Russia and China, and flat sales in the key North American market. The lower reported profit reflects the well-known external cost pressures and investment to support future revenue growth, partially offset by good cost control. Our profit estimates are unchanged but we increase our dividend estimate. The recent strong share price performance takes the prospective FY23e multiple (23.9x) to between its recent long-run average (17.2x) and peak multiples (over 30x).