Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Goodbye to Ultra-Low US Short-Term Interest Rates? Financial Markets Well Ahead of the Fed

Hawkish Forward Guidance by Fed Fails to Dampen Bullish Sentiment

Asia Economics: The Market Panic Does Not Alter Medium-Term Trajectory

Fed Policy Outlook: Higher for Longer Proves More Durable Than Expected, but US Equities Don't Care

Controlling US Financial Conditions: Looming Battle Between the Fed and Treasury

The Case for Faster US Economic Growth Underpinned by Resilient Consumers

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Failure to remove policy accommodation after household balance sheets had been repaired after the global financial crisis simply prolonged the secular stagnation thesis that had been embraced by bond investors.</li>
<li>The current estimate of the real neutral federal funds rate is too low relative to potential GDP growth, presenting an opportunity for bond investors to jettison their secular stagnation thesis.</li>
<li>A structurally higher neutral Fed policy rate will impact short-term funding markets, while equity investors will need to place greater focus on long-term corporate profit growth for their returns. </li>
</ul>


Failure to remove policy accommodation after household balance sheets had been repaired after the global financial crisis simply prolonged the secular stagnation thesis that had been embraced by bond investors.
The current estimate of the real neutral federal funds rate is too low relative to potential GDP growth, presenting an opportunity for bond investors to jettison their secular stagnation thesis.
A structurally higher neutral Fed policy rate will impact short-term funding markets, while equity investors will need to place greater focus on long-term corporate profit growth for their returns. 


Future Fed Policy Conduct: Time to Eradicate the Secular Stagnation Thesis