Europe Covid 19 Update - More Positive Data - Focus on the Next Stage and EM

Doubling Days. A Framework For Modeling, Comparing & Forecasting The Global Spread Of COVID-19

Update on European Covid 19 Numbers - Cautiously Positive

The Data Problem at the Heart of Covid 19 but Adjusted Data Gives Some Hope

Mark Artherton, CFA

Inteqres

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In our most recent note, we introduced a simplified forecasting model for COVID-19 expectations.  In this note we develop it further with explicit forecasts of the high point of fatalities in major European countries.  We also show that without doubt both Spain and Italy have shifted to testing more than just the critically ill.  This means that case numbers are worse than useless for tracking the efficacy of lockdowns in these countries.Using our model, we forecast that Italy is past the absolute peak and will show declining numbers over the next 10 days.  Spain is 5 or 6 days from its peak.  The UK will most likely see a peak at the weekend and France early next week.Therefore, the news from Europe will be mostly positive from the middle of next week.  It is too early to extend our model to the US, but we will do so in the following days

In our most recent note, we introduced a simplified forecasting model for COVID-19 expectations.  In this note we develop it further with explicit forecasts of the high point of fatalities in major European countries.  We also show that without doubt both Spain and Italy have shifted to testing more than just the critically ill.  This means that case numbers are worse than useless for tracking the efficacy of lockdowns in these countries.Using our model, we forecast that Italy is past the absolute peak and will show declining numbers over the next 10 days.  Spain is 5 or 6 days from its peak.  The UK will most likely see a peak at the weekend and France early next week.Therefore, the news from Europe will be mostly positive from the middle of next week.  It is too early to extend our model to the US, but we will do so in the following days

Forecasting the Peak of Public Panic over Covid-19 in Europe - 10 Days from Now