Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Fed’s 50bp rate cut was remarkably forceful relative to the resilient data. It relies on rates being far above their neutral setting despite no evidence for this tightness.</li><li>Historical parallels to 1998 are mounting with the forceful start and conveniently timed political support. A repeat would mean an early pause and hikes returning in 2025.</li><li>Brazil has tracked a year ahead of the Fed in the last hiking and cutting cycles. Its latest hike would also be consistent with the Fed following the 1998 scenario.</li></ul><p></p>

The Fed’s 50bp rate cut was remarkably forceful relative to the resilient data. It relies on rates being far above their neutral setting despite no evidence for this tightness.Historical parallels to 1998 are mounting with the forceful start and conveniently timed political support. A repeat would mean an early pause and hikes returning in 2025.Brazil has tracked a year ahead of the Fed in the last hiking and cutting cycles. Its latest hike would also be consistent with the Fed following the 1998 scenario.

Forceful Fed Rhymes From 1998