The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Elections, Floor Tiles, and Smartphones

Indonesia Political Risk Analyst

Kevin O’Rourke

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

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Prabowo refused to concede defeat despite reliable Quick Counts showing a 55% Widodo win.  Prabowo also fancifully claimed victory, denounced fraud and hinted at deploying masses in Jakarta.  In fact, Prabowo's camp scaled back a 19 April rally while backpedaling on calls to use 'people power'.  Nonetheless, the proven ability of Prabowo's backers to inundate Jakarta poses risks.  Widodo's likely response is yet more caution.  In the legislative election, voters opted for virtually the same (lamentable) parliament again.Politics: Numerous reliable Quick Count surveys of actual ballot‑station results show President Joko Widodo having won 54.8 percent of the national vote, on average, versus 45.2 percent for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto.  The latter has nonetheless refused to concede defeat.  He denounced Quick Counts as “lies” and said that his own campaign’s “exit poll” shows him with 63 percent – an unsubstantiated and highly implausible claim (Page 2).  Voters returned virtually the same parliament to office, with PDI‑Perjuangan and Gerindra failing to expand significantly and only one incumbent party (Hanura) clearly falling short of the parliamentary threshold.  No new or non-incumbent parties will obtain parliamentary seats, but the reformist Solidarity Party (PSI) will have a substantial role in Jakarta’s Provincial Assembly (DPRD) (p. 4).  Rifts are apparent between Prabowo and his running mate Sandiaga Uno, although they appeared together in an 18 April victory declaration.  A chief supporter, National Mandate Party (Pan) founder Amien Rais, called for “people power” to respond to cheating and uphold the people’s sovereignty.  Islamic groups including the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) initially planned a long march in Central Jakarta for the afternoon of 19 April, but the campaign curtailed this “celebration” and moved it to campaign headquarters in Kebayoran, South Jakarta.  For his part, Widodo issued messages emphasizing the credibility of Quick Counts and calling for patience until official results come forth.  Aides to Prabowo have already emphasized the possibility of filing an appeal with the Constitutional Court.  But the 19 April rally proved modest and Prabowo aides downplayed 'people power' as merely meaning the collective monitoring of the manual ballot count (p. 6).Vote Counting: With Quick Counts now complete, the next juncture in vote‑counting will be early next week, when the ‘Real Count’ from the General Election Commission (KPU) becomes clear.  This will still be unofficial, but it will accurately confirm the eventual official result due in mid-May, or by 22 May at the latest (p. 7).  Voting proceeded smoothly in virtually all areas, with the exception of Papua, where delayed voting took place on 18 April in over 1,000 ballot stations.  A re‑vote seems likely for several hundred thousand overseas voters in Malaysia who submitted ballots by mail (p. 8).   <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td>Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.</td></tr></tbody></table>Outlook: Prabowo also refused to concede in 2014, pushing matters to a brief clash with police – but the changed factor since then is the sheer size of the crowds that pro‑Prabowo Islamic groups have repeatedly mustered in Jakarta.  Prabowo, envisioning grandeur, may hope to mobilize so many that broader swathes follow suit, sweeping away Widodo and making Prabowo the new leader.  But, in fact, only Prabowo’s core base would follow such a course and security officials will not flinch.  But, in the process, disruptions could hurt policymaking and the economy (p. 10).

Prabowo refused to concede defeat despite reliable Quick Counts showing a 55% Widodo win.  Prabowo also fancifully claimed victory, denounced fraud and hinted at deploying masses in Jakarta.  In fact, Prabowo's camp scaled back a 19 April rally while backpedaling on calls to use 'people power'.  Nonetheless, the proven ability of Prabowo's backers to inundate Jakarta poses risks.  Widodo's likely response is yet more caution.  In the legislative election, voters opted for virtually the same (lamentable) parliament again.Politics: Numerous reliable Quick Count surveys of actual ballot‑station results show President Joko Widodo having won 54.8 percent of the national vote, on average, versus 45.2 percent for Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto.  The latter has nonetheless refused to concede defeat.  He denounced Quick Counts as “lies” and said that his own campaign’s “exit poll” shows him with 63 percent – an unsubstantiated and highly implausible claim (Page 2).  Voters returned virtually the same parliament to office, with PDI‑Perjuangan and Gerindra failing to expand significantly and only one incumbent party (Hanura) clearly falling short of the parliamentary threshold.  No new or non-incumbent parties will obtain parliamentary seats, but the reformist Solidarity Party (PSI) will have a substantial role in Jakarta’s Provincial Assembly (DPRD) (p. 4).  Rifts are apparent between Prabowo and his running mate Sandiaga Uno, although they appeared together in an 18 April victory declaration.  A chief supporter, National Mandate Party (Pan) founder Amien Rais, called for “people power” to respond to cheating and uphold the people’s sovereignty.  Islamic groups including the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) initially planned a long march in Central Jakarta for the afternoon of 19 April, but the campaign curtailed this “celebration” and moved it to campaign headquarters in Kebayoran, South Jakarta.  For his part, Widodo issued messages emphasizing the credibility of Quick Counts and calling for patience until official results come forth.  Aides to Prabowo have already emphasized the possibility of filing an appeal with the Constitutional Court.  But the 19 April rally proved modest and Prabowo aides downplayed 'people power' as merely meaning the collective monitoring of the manual ballot count (p. 6).Vote Counting: With Quick Counts now complete, the next juncture in vote‑counting will be early next week, when the ‘Real Count’ from the General Election Commission (KPU) becomes clear.  This will still be unofficial, but it will accurately confirm the eventual official result due in mid-May, or by 22 May at the latest (p. 7).  Voting proceeded smoothly in virtually all areas, with the exception of Papua, where delayed voting took place on 18 April in over 1,000 ballot stations.  A re‑vote seems likely for several hundred thousand overseas voters in Malaysia who submitted ballots by mail (p. 8).   Produced since 2003, the Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news.  The writer is Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi.  For subscription info please contact: &lt;kevin.orourke@reformasi.info&gt;.Outlook: Prabowo also refused to concede in 2014, pushing matters to a brief clash with police – but the changed factor since then is the sheer size of the crowds that pro‑Prabowo Islamic groups have repeatedly mustered in Jakarta.  Prabowo, envisioning grandeur, may hope to mobilize so many that broader swathes follow suit, sweeping away Widodo and making Prabowo the new leader.  But, in fact, only Prabowo’s core base would follow such a course and security officials will not flinch.  But, in the process, disruptions could hurt policymaking and the economy (p. 10). 

Focus Now on Prabowo & "People Power" / Parliament Unchanged / Expect Yet More Caution / Uno Uneasy