Fluence’s Q319 results reflected contrasting trends. Further delays to Custom Engineering Solutions (CES) contracts lead us to cut our forecasts again, but Smart Product Solutions (SPS) is on track. Significantly, Fluence secured two new large Aspiral deals in China – if these ramp up as we anticipate, SPS revenue could double to more than US$50m in FY20e. If we add this to the existing CES contract base, Fluence is close to the revenue run-rate it needs to reach EBITDA break-even and cash generation.
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