Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

FLOW FRONT? :  Anatomy of a multi-billion dollar pre-deal flowback

Event-Driven

The premise of the <a href="../flow-front-anatomy-of-a-multi-billion-dollar-pre-deal-flowback" target="_blank">original FLOWFRONT&nbsp;piece</a>&nbsp;is/was that the merger between Tokyo Electron (8035 JP, hereafter "TEL") and Applied Materials (AMAT US, hereafter "AMAT") creates a massive supply of TEL shares (which can be deemed to be AMAT shares by proxy because of a fixed merger ratio). &nbsp;This fork provides additional information and commentary regarding the&nbsp;original information presented, namely:<ol><li>Why, if NewCo stays in the US indices, does it come out of the Japan Indices?&nbsp;</li><li>How do we know that AMAT will fall if TEL does?</li><li>How do&nbsp;we know the right timing?</li><li>How do we know the&nbsp;numbers are right on index holdings?</li><li>If you start now, is there a hedge?</li><li>One last tidbit to consider</li></ol>&nbsp;The Conclusion, after delving into the details, continues to be... there will likely be a massive selloff of TEL shares once the conditions precedent to the Business Combination Agreement are satisfied (waiting for regulatory approvals). &nbsp;The numbers are big. Really big. And this piece has a pretty graph but you have to go to the end to see it.

The premise of the original FLOWFRONT&nbsp;piece&nbsp;is/was that the merger between Tokyo Electron (8035 JP, hereafter "TEL") and Applied Materials (AMAT US, hereafter "AMAT") creates a massive supply of TEL shares (which can be deemed to be AMAT shares by proxy because of a fixed merger ratio). &nbsp;This fork provides additional information and commentary regarding the&nbsp;original information presented, namely:Why, if NewCo stays in the US indices, does it come out of the Japan Indices?&nbsp;How do we know that AMAT will fall if TEL does?How do&nbsp;we know the right timing?How do we know the&nbsp;numbers are right on index holdings?If you start now, is there a hedge?One last tidbit to consider&nbsp;The Conclusion, after delving into the details, continues to be... there will likely be a massive selloff of TEL shares once the conditions precedent to the Business Combination Agreement are satisfied (waiting for regulatory approvals). &nbsp;The numbers are big. Really big. And this piece has a pretty graph but you have to go to the end to see it.

FLOW FRONT?  Anatomy of a multi-billion dollar flowback - Part Deux