Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Telecom services / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China: Floods, Growing Imbalances and Liquidity Traps - How to Position<ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">A slew of recent better than expected key economic data out of China has confirmed what the China Drag/Pull Indicator has been showing since late 2014, that China’s economy is stabilizing.  This has helped drive a positive shift in international investor sentiment towards China. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">In line with our expectations, since bottoming in January 2016 investor sentiment towards China has strongly recovered. Since January the MSCI China Index is up 22%.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">Since January our view towards Chinese equity markets has evolved. Due to misplaced stimulus local Chinese investors entered into a state of exuberance (as indicated by our Investor Rationality Indicator) in April 2016. Exuberant local investors are failing to asses risk properly and this is resulting in the build up of financial imbalances.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">Stock and real estate bubbles are likely to form due to a combination of misplaced stimulus and investment restrictions. Along with the potential upside in Chinese equities we highlight the dangers of investing into an environment of imbalances and growing risks.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">In the near term equities in countries including Brazil, Chile, Peru and Malaysia are set to benefit the most from any further stabilization in China’s economy without exposing investors to the growing risks in China.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">Equity allocations towards China should be focused on sectors of China’s ‘new economy’ - technology, consumer discretionary and health care.</li></ul>

China: Floods, Growing Imbalances and Liquidity Traps - How to PositionA slew of recent better than expected key economic data out of China has confirmed what the China Drag/Pull Indicator has been showing since late 2014, that China’s economy is stabilizing.  This has helped drive a positive shift in international investor sentiment towards China. In line with our expectations, since bottoming in January 2016 investor sentiment towards China has strongly recovered. Since January the MSCI China Index is up 22%.Since January our view towards Chinese equity markets has evolved. Due to misplaced stimulus local Chinese investors entered into a state of exuberance (as indicated by our Investor Rationality Indicator) in April 2016. Exuberant local investors are failing to asses risk properly and this is resulting in the build up of financial imbalances.Stock and real estate bubbles are likely to form due to a combination of misplaced stimulus and investment restrictions. Along with the potential upside in Chinese equities we highlight the dangers of investing into an environment of imbalances and growing risks.In the near term equities in countries including Brazil, Chile, Peru and Malaysia are set to benefit the most from any further stabilization in China’s economy without exposing investors to the growing risks in China.Equity allocations towards China should be focused on sectors of China’s ‘new economy’ - technology, consumer discretionary and health care.

Greatwall Information Industry (000748 CH)

China Communications Services Corp Ltd. (552 HK)

Longmaster Information&Technology (300288 CH)

Tongding Interconnection Informtn (002491 CH)

Inspur Electronic Infmtn Indtry (000977 CH)

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Shenzhen InfoGem Technologies (300085 CH)

Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) (601231 CH)

Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai)

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002153 CH)

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Fujian Newland Computer Co, Ltd. (000997 CH)

Unisplendour Corporation Limited (000938 CH)

Shanghai Wangsu Science & Technology Co (300017 CH)

Beijing Xinwei Telecom Tech Group (600485 CH)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network (300033 CH)

Guangzhou Haige Cmncts Grp Inc Co (002465 CH)

Shanghai 2345 Network Holding Group (002195 CH)

Datang Telecom Technology Co., Ltd. A (600198 CH)

Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co (300115 CH)

Digital China Information Service (000555 CH)

CETC Cyberspace Security Technology (002268 CH)

Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co, Ltd. (000062 CH)

Leshi Internet Info. & Tech. Corp.,Bj (300104 CH)

China Greatwall Technology Group Co Ltd (000066 CH)

Floods Dampen Domestic Sentiment but Int'l Mood Towards China Improves - What Is Behind This?