Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK GDP Resurgence Raises 1Q19 Forecast

UK: IP Indicators Boom Above Peers in Mar-19

UK: PMIs Diverge as Bias Intensifies in Mar-19

FLASH: UK IP Buffeted by Energy Volatility in 1Q19

FLASH: UK PMIs Overstate Sour Start to 2019

UK Cycle: Bullish Trends Stretch Before Slowing

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The pace of UK activity growth implied by the services PMI picked up amid a surprise rebound to 51.3. It remains gloomy relative to the official data, consistent with the survey’s bias to exaggerate uncertainty’s depressing effect.</em></li>
<li><em>A slight slowing in comparable sectors is still likely, but I maintain my relatively bullish forecast for 1Q19 GDP growth of 0.3% q-o-q, albeit close to rounding down.</em></li>
</ul>


The pace of UK activity growth implied by the services PMI picked up amid a surprise rebound to 51.3. It remains gloomy relative to the official data, consistent with the survey’s bias to exaggerate uncertainty’s depressing effect.
A slight slowing in comparable sectors is still likely, but I maintain my relatively bullish forecast for 1Q19 GDP growth of 0.3% q-o-q, albeit close to rounding down.


FLASH: UK PMIs Pare Some Excess Pain in Feb-19