Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK PMI Partially Rebounds Above Manufacturing

BoE: Hiking Rates Early (Call Change to May-18)

BoE: Silvana Tenreyro Has Some Dovish Form

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth increased to 0.3% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast and the consensus. Some surprising moves were pencilled in for the industrial sectors in June, but that might be the ONS anticipating revisions.</li>
<li>This outcome once again falls short of the BoE’s assumption. It is only 0.1pp lower for Q2, but H1 growth is almost half the pace it projected in May.</li>
<li>
Weak GDP should discourage a hurried rate hike, lest the current path proves to be one of deteriorating…</li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth increased to 0.3% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast and the consensus. Some surprising moves were pencilled in for the industrial sectors in June, but that might be the ONS anticipating revisions.
This outcome once again falls short of the BoE’s assumption. It is only 0.1pp lower for Q2, but H1 growth is almost half the pace it projected in May.

Weak GDP should discourage a hurried rate hike, lest the current path proves to be one of deteriorating…


FLASH: UK GDP Suffering from Supply Shock