Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Industry Mostly Strong in Sep-17

FLASH: UK Demand Better than Often Assumed

BoE: Nov Hike on Brexit Transition Terms

UK Activity: Less Brisk but More Resilient

FLASH: UK Industry Supports 0.4% Q3 GDP Growth

FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear

FLASH: UK Manufacturing PMI Dip No Hurdle to Hike

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth increased to 0.4% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast but 0.1pp above the consensus. Services didn’t grow as fast in August, but the July fall was trimmed along with volatility around the post-Brexit trend.</li>
<li>This outcome exceeded the BoE’s forecast from August but was probably in line with what they expected ahead of the release. It at least presents no reason to abort the rate hike widely expected for November, including by me.</li>
</ul>UK Q3 GDP exceeded the…


UK GDP growth increased to 0.4% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast but 0.1pp above the consensus. Services didn’t grow as fast in August, but the July fall was trimmed along with volatility around the post-Brexit trend.
This outcome exceeded the BoE’s forecast from August but was probably in line with what they expected ahead of the release. It at least presents no reason to abort the rate hike widely expected for November, including by me.
UK Q3 GDP exceeded the…

FLASH: UK GDP Acceleration Leaves BoE on Track