Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Following the release of the December US retail sales report, recession doomsayers have become much more vocal and their calls will invariably become louder as economic deceleration unfolds.
There are currently no major signs of excesses in important sectors of the US economy to unhinge the flat Phillips Curve, while structural shifts over time have made forecasting inflexion points in the business cycle much more difficult.
Meanwhile, although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is concerned about externally-sourced headwinds, members seem content with the current behaviour of the domestic economy, at least for the time being.
The Trump Administration will be keen to ease fiscal policy again to prevent a 2020 recession if growth slows significantly this year, while the Democrats would face a tricky task obstructing if there was a sizeable infrastructure spending component included as part of the measures.
Meanwhile, some Democratic politicians have been exploring deploying Modern Monetary Theory to facilitate the greater provision of free government services, but financial markets would baulk at this prospect, particularly bond market vigilantes.
The behaviour of the bond market vigilantes have highlighted the problems facing the Fed in trying to raise the policy rate significantly above zero, but they have at least provided the FOMC with an interest rate buffer to counter economic slowdown, something conspicuously absent in the Eurozone and Japan.

Following the release of the December US retail sales report, recession doomsayers have become much more vocal and their calls will invariably become louder as economic deceleration unfolds.
There are currently no major signs of excesses in important sectors of the US economy to unhinge the flat Phillips Curve, while structural shifts over time have made forecasting inflexion points in the business cycle much more difficult.
Meanwhile, although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is concerned about externally-sourced headwinds, members seem content with the current behaviour of the domestic economy, at least for the time being.
The Trump Administration will be keen to ease fiscal policy again to prevent a 2020 recession if growth slows significantly this year, while the Democrats would face a tricky task obstructing if there was a sizeable infrastructure spending component included as part of the measures.
Meanwhile, some Democratic politicians have been exploring deploying Modern Monetary Theory to facilitate the greater provision of free government services, but financial markets would baulk at this prospect, particularly bond market vigilantes.
The behaviour of the bond market vigilantes have highlighted the problems facing the Fed in trying to raise the policy rate significantly above zero, but they have at least provided the FOMC with an interest rate buffer to counter economic slowdown, something conspicuously absent in the Eurozone and Japan.

Fed Remains Unfazed by Recession Doomsayers, but Political Challenges Lurk on the Horizon