Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Liquidity Outlook Supportive for Risky Assets as Stubborn Yield Curve Inversion Requires Resolution

US Political Backdrop Raises Risks of Fiscal and Monetary Policies Reflating the Economy

Markets Modestly Reduce the Ante on the Fed but Investors Remain Shackled to Easy Money

Overdue Reality Check Required? Aggressive Fed Policy Rate Cut Expectations Underpin Risky Assets

The Fate of Quantitative Tightening: Not Solely in the Hands of the Fed

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The faster-than-expected decline in inflation in 2023 has forced the Fed to lower real interest rates next year, partly due its assessment of the neutral level remaining unchanged at 0.5%.</li>
<li>History suggests that Fed policy pivots followed by a rapid succession of interest rate reductions have not prevented recessions. US equity and bond investors are still embracing a soft-landing outcome.</li>
<li>By capitulating to the demands of financial markets to pivot its policy stance, the Fed faces the risk of encountering more pressure to ease further at a later juncture.</li>
</ul>


The faster-than-expected decline in inflation in 2023 has forced the Fed to lower real interest rates next year, partly due its assessment of the neutral level remaining unchanged at 0.5%.
History suggests that Fed policy pivots followed by a rapid succession of interest rate reductions have not prevented recessions. US equity and bond investors are still embracing a soft-landing outcome.
By capitulating to the demands of financial markets to pivot its policy stance, the Fed faces the risk of encountering more pressure to ease further at a later juncture.


Fed Policy Pivot: Forerunner to Further Capitulation in the Great Game of Chicken?