Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Financial Markets Embrace a Fed Policy Pivot as Another Game of Chicken Looms Large

Strong Labour Market Challenges Fed, as Risk Capital Outlook Rests on Rapid Inflation Decline

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Changes to the Fed's forward guidance will depend on incoming economic data over the summer. The Fed will only change policy stance once a return to price stability is achieved.</li>
<li>30-Year fixed mortgage rates will probably breach 6% if the Fed retains a hawkish bias, particularly as quantitative tightening accelerates. The Fed will not be overly-concerned by cooler downstream activity. </li>
<li>Markets may be disappointed by the Fed's reaction to economic weakness, but elevated inflation makes easing policy impossible. US equities have corrected,  but are vulnerable to revised corporate profits expectations.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the Fed's forward guidance will depend on incoming economic data over the summer. The Fed will only change policy stance once a return to price stability is achieved.
30-Year fixed mortgage rates will probably breach 6% if the Fed retains a hawkish bias, particularly as quantitative tightening accelerates. The Fed will not be overly-concerned by cooler downstream activity. 
Markets may be disappointed by the Fed's reaction to economic weakness, but elevated inflation makes easing policy impossible. US equities have corrected,  but are vulnerable to revised corporate profits expectations.


Fed Policy Outlook: Markets Face a Summer Tug of War Between Inflation and Growth Fears