Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The current tone of incoming US economic data is, once again, at variance with the behavior of financial markets, whereby the data dynamic is in apparent reversal of the disconnect that prevailed when the Fed deployed ultra-accommodative policy settings.
Fed Chair Powell will not wish to convey the impression that policy is being dictated by financial markets, while firm labour demand would seemingly rule out a pause in rate hikes.
As 2019 unfolds, the persistence of low inflation, despite faster economic growth, could potentially offer the Fed some breathing space to pause raising the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March.
The long-standing dichotomy in inflation trends for goods and services remains intact, while the FOMC will be paying careful attention to prospective movements in rental costs and health care for indications of future inflation momentum.
Although falling oil prices may have helped to keep inflationary expectations well-anchored, Fed policy credibility and the rising dollar exchange rate probably played more dominant roles.
The US monetary policy outlook in 2019 will become more uncertain due to a confluence of factors, but the FOMC will require faltering economic data in Q1 to justify a pause in raising the federal funds rate in March.

The current tone of incoming US economic data is, once again, at variance with the behavior of financial markets, whereby the data dynamic is in apparent reversal of the disconnect that prevailed when the Fed deployed ultra-accommodative policy settings.
Fed Chair Powell will not wish to convey the impression that policy is being dictated by financial markets, while firm labour demand would seemingly rule out a pause in rate hikes.
As 2019 unfolds, the persistence of low inflation, despite faster economic growth, could potentially offer the Fed some breathing space to pause raising the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March.
The long-standing dichotomy in inflation trends for goods and services remains intact, while the FOMC will be paying careful attention to prospective movements in rental costs and health care for indications of future inflation momentum.
Although falling oil prices may have helped to keep inflationary expectations well-anchored, Fed policy credibility and the rising dollar exchange rate probably played more dominant roles.
The US monetary policy outlook in 2019 will become more uncertain due to a confluence of factors, but the FOMC will require faltering economic data in Q1 to justify a pause in raising the federal funds rate in March.

Fed Policy in 2019: Low Inflation Complicates an Uncertain Outlook