Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sought to further mitigate the fallout from last December's rise in the federal funds rate by ignoring its own economic models, and, instead, embracing a more dovish outlook for the policy rate, as well as slowing the planned pace of its balance sheet roll off.
No further interest rate increases are envisaged by the FOMC in 2019, while any required in 2020 will not take policy settings into restrictive territory due to the imminent arrival of sustainable growth.
The persistently low inflation backdrop has permitted the Fed to embrace a dovish approach, but engineering a significant decline in real interest rates could prove problematic if the economy falters at some future point.
Fears about yield curve inversion and recession risks persist, despite the Fed's dovish tilt, thereby potentially raising concerns about the overall credibility of monetary policy conduct.
US short-term interest rates are being anchored to a "new normal" environment of low inflation and slower economic growth compared to history, and, consequently, the bond market appears to have won its battle of wills with the FOMC by forcing members to reduce their estimate of the neutral federal funds rate.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sought to further mitigate the fallout from last December's rise in the federal funds rate by ignoring its own economic models, and, instead, embracing a more dovish outlook for the policy rate, as well as slowing the planned pace of its balance sheet roll off.
No further interest rate increases are envisaged by the FOMC in 2019, while any required in 2020 will not take policy settings into restrictive territory due to the imminent arrival of sustainable growth.
The persistently low inflation backdrop has permitted the Fed to embrace a dovish approach, but engineering a significant decline in real interest rates could prove problematic if the economy falters at some future point.
Fears about yield curve inversion and recession risks persist, despite the Fed's dovish tilt, thereby potentially raising concerns about the overall credibility of monetary policy conduct.
US short-term interest rates are being anchored to a "new normal" environment of low inflation and slower economic growth compared to history, and, consequently, the bond market appears to have won its battle of wills with the FOMC by forcing members to reduce their estimate of the neutral federal funds rate.

Fed Policy Credibility: Financial Markets Raise the Heat