China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>Overall flat numbers for domestic shipping are not indicative of negative growth. Specifically we are seeing negative numbers underlying sectors catching up or rather levelling out previous growth. In terms of steel and aluminum inventories, a direct comparison is tricky due to the current dominance of aluminum. Steel should not counted out. It is growing and with shifts in construction we have written about recently, the types of steel marking growth could tell more about China real growth than simply analyzing material growth. We do not anticipate any material fall or increase in either manufacturing or service PMI given the relatively flat numbers from June through July.</p>

Overall flat numbers for domestic shipping are not indicative of negative growth. Specifically we are seeing negative numbers underlying sectors catching up or rather levelling out previous growth. In terms of steel and aluminum inventories, a direct comparison is tricky due to the current dominance of aluminum. Steel should not counted out. It is growing and with shifts in construction we have written about recently, the types of steel marking growth could tell more about China real growth than simply analyzing material growth. We do not anticipate any material fall or increase in either manufacturing or service PMI given the relatively flat numbers from June through July.

Expect Chinese Flash Data To Remain Constant