Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Based on monthly producer price decreases during a recession, the PPI will fall more than 10% in August, increasing the likelihood of a negative CPI print that month.  </li>
<li>If we take the relationship between Spanish CPI and PPI as an input, Eurozone headline inflation should decrease to practically zero.</li>
<li>However, based on the long lag between Eurozone CPI and money supply growth, Eurozone headline inflation will not turn negative until at least March next year, if at all.</li>
</ul>


Based on monthly producer price decreases during a recession, the PPI will fall more than 10% in August, increasing the likelihood of a negative CPI print that month.  
If we take the relationship between Spanish CPI and PPI as an input, Eurozone headline inflation should decrease to practically zero.
However, based on the long lag between Eurozone CPI and money supply growth, Eurozone headline inflation will not turn negative until at least March next year, if at all.


Eurozone: When Deflation?