Global Airlines: Mexico's Volaris Shows GTF Groundings Can Drive Higher Pricing

European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

EasyJet - On Track for >£600m PBT in FY24 and Another Record Summer

Japan Airlines: Seasonality Scrutiny Still Suggests Significant Upside to FY24 Guidance

Singapore Airlines: Further Positive Surprises to Come in 2H24 - Bigger Test in FY25

Japan Airlines: Upside to Expectations Despite A350 Loss

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

International Consolidated Airlines Group / Equity Bottom-Up

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

<ul>
<li>We are most ahead of consensus for IAG in 2024, and recognising Lufthansa's highest-in-group double-digit capacity growth rate in 2024 may render its earnings most difficult to forecast/vulnerable to disappointment.</li>
<li>For AF-KLM 2024 seems a crucial year to demonstrate it can grow earnings in more challenging conditions if it is to increase confidence it can reach near-€4bn EBIT by 2028.</li>
<li>Delta reports 2023 results today, and its outlook commentary will be important to frame 1Q24 prospects on the Transatlantic, which should encourage that 2024 will prove resilient.</li>
</ul>


We are most ahead of consensus for IAG in 2024, and recognising Lufthansa's highest-in-group double-digit capacity growth rate in 2024 may render its earnings most difficult to forecast/vulnerable to disappointment.
For AF-KLM 2024 seems a crucial year to demonstrate it can grow earnings in more challenging conditions if it is to increase confidence it can reach near-€4bn EBIT by 2028.
Delta reports 2023 results today, and its outlook commentary will be important to frame 1Q24 prospects on the Transatlantic, which should encourage that 2024 will prove resilient.


European Airlines - Bridging Quarterly 2024 Prospects Encourages with Fuel Tailwinds/Tight Supply