ERM Power - US update and focus on energy solutions

ERM Power’s strategy is focused on sustaining growth in its cash-generative core Australian activities while developing two new growth areas: energy solutions and US supply. While we have reduced our short-term forecasts for the US activities to reflect lower margins and volumes, as guided by the company, we have increased our forecasts for energy solutions on the back of our new assessment following a recent investor briefing. Our analysis suggests this business could drive up to 40% growth in group EBITDA in the medium term (16% mid-case). Overall, our FY18-21e EBITDA forecasts change by -6%, -14%, -9% and +7% respectively. Our base case valuation, which includes core Australian business only, is unchanged at A$2.6/share.